What a theory is with no smoke attached.
A 10-minute lesson at The Observatory: the strange light, the testable bet, four nights of logs and the stress test that turns hypotheses into a confirmed chart.
Why 'theory' in science means the opposite of what it means on the street, and how to tell a theory from a hunch.
The case
On the street, 'theory' means a hunch. In science it's the sturdiest thing there is. Tonight we check by looking at the sky.
In 10 minutes you'll know why 'it's just a theory' is a compliment: you'll tell hypotheses, theories and laws apart, and smell pseudoscience from far away.
What you will learn
- Tell hypotheses, theories and laws apart without mixing them
- Explain how an idea survives into a theory
- Spot when something isn't science because it can't be broken
The confirmed chart
A theory is the star chart left after many nights of looking: not a hunch, but the explanation that survived every attempt to break it.
Bet
A hypothesis: something testable that could fail.
Nights
Log and repeat: look many times, have others look.
Stress test
Try to break it: what survives moves up a rank.
Chart
The theory: the explanation left standing.
Frequently asked questions
Is a theory just a guess?
Quite the opposite: in science a theory is the explanation that survived every serious attempt to break it. The testable guess is called a hypothesis.
What's the difference between a theory and a law?
A law describes what happens with precision; a theory explains why it happens. They aren't ranks: a law doesn't 'grow up' into a theory or vice versa.
How do I know something isn't science?
Ask what test would break it. If no imaginable test could refute it — like horoscopes — it's opinion, not science.
Test yourself: Lightning round: trial of ideas
Someone says 'I have a theory it's going to rain'. In science, that is…
Correct answer: A hypothesis: a testable bet.
On the street 'theory' means hunch; in science, a testable hunch is called a hypothesis.
What turns a hypothesis into a theory?
Correct answer: Surviving serious attempts to break it.
Neither votes nor fame: only ideas that withstand honest attempts to break them survive.
Why is 'the stars rule your luck' not science?
Correct answer: Because it can't be tested or broken.
With no possible test there is no science: neither for nor against. It's opinion, however pretty it sounds.
The pocket rule — If it can't be broken, it isn't science: it's opinion in disguise. A theory is the explanation that survived every attempt to break it.
What you take away
Tell hypotheses, theories and laws apart — and smell when something isn't science.